Competition Challenges US Exports

By Marri Carrow, USGC Manager of Communications

USDA today released its monthly publication, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). According to the report, U.S. corn production is lowered 20 million bushels from the previous month’s estimates based on updated estimates of yields for Illinois and Minnesota, and harvested area for Michigan. However, U.S. corn production remains a record at the revised estimate of 13.1 billion bushels. WASDE projected U.S. corn exports lower by 100 million bushels as competition increases in the foreign market.

World corn production for 2009/2010 is raised 5.9 million tons (232 million bushels) with Argentina production increased 3.8 million tons (150 million bushels) and South Africa at 2 million tons (79 million bushels). Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton (20-million-bushel) reduction for India corn and the lower U.S. corn production estimate. Global sorghum production is raised 0.6 million tons (24 million bushels) with increases for Argentina and India outweighing a reduction for Australia. Global barley production is lowered 1.2 million tons (55 million bushels) with reductions for China, Argentina and Mexico.

Global corn exports are raised 2.5 million tons (98 million bushels) for Argentina and 1.0 million tons (39 million bushels) for South Africa. Corn exports are also raised 0.5 million tons (20 million bushels) for India. Mostly offsetting are corn export reductions of 1.0 million tons (39 million bushels) for Brazil and 2.5 million tons (98 million bushels) for the United States. Global corn exports are raised 0.7 million tons (28 million bushels), but a 0.6-million-ton (28-million-bushel) reduction in global barley exports is nearly offsetting. Barley exports are lowered for EU-27 and Argentina. Global consumption of coarse grains and corn, in particular, are little changed, raising ending stocks with the increase in production.